RismadarVoice Reporters
September 14, 2026
The ongoing war between the United States and Iran could make it increasingly difficult for Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to fulfil nearly $4tn in investment commitments announced in the United States under President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda.
This is according to a new analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, which warned that the conflict is putting additional strain on the finances and economic outlook of the three Gulf countries.
The 15-page report, released on Monday, said the war had increased pressure on the Gulf states to raise spending on defence, energy infrastructure and trade, potentially forcing them to reconsider the scale and pace of planned investments in the US.
The report also noted that the conflict had affected Gulf economies more severely than the global economy generally.
The International Monetary Fund has consequently lowered its 2026 growth projections for the three countries. Qatar’s forecast was reduced by 14.7 percentage points to 8.6 per cent, while Saudi Arabia’s projection fell from 4.5 per cent to 1.7 per cent. The UAE’s growth forecast was similarly cut from 5.6 per cent to 1.7 per cent.
Despite the economic pressure, the institute said the Gulf countries had sufficient financial assets and borrowing capacity to avoid an immediate funding crisis.
However, it warned that governments could increasingly favour domestic spending and investment over commitments to projects in the United States.
The report said Saudi Arabia had already begun directing more resources towards domestic investment before the conflict, a trend that could now accelerate.
It noted that the proportion of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund portfolio allocated to international investments had declined from about 30 per cent in 2020 to 20 per cent over the past six years.
The analysis also cautioned that delays in implementing the Gulf states’ investment pledges could attract pressure from the Trump administration.
It cited the administration’s previous use of tariffs against countries it believed were failing to meet investment commitments, including South Korea
Qatar, meanwhile, continues to deepen its presence in the American energy sector.
QatarEnergy began production of liquefied natural gas at a facility in Texas in March and commenced exports the following month.
The company is also reportedly negotiating with several US LNG producers on agreements extending to 2031, partly to compensate for production capacity affected by Iranian attacks on Qatar’s LNG infrastructure.
The report said such investments could strengthen economic ties between Qatar and the US energy industry despite the broader financial pressures created by the conflict.
Beyond economic pressures, the Peterson Institute identified political scrutiny in the United States as another potential obstacle to Gulf investment plans.
The report said several lawmakers had questioned the economic and national security implications of Gulf investments, as well as issues surrounding governance and potential conflicts of interest.
It cited a $2bn investment in Binance by a UAE-backed investment company as one example that attracted congressional scrutiny because the transaction involved a cryptocurrency linked to the Trump family.
The report also noted concerns over the involvement of Gulf sovereign wealth funds in major US corporate transactions.
With the Gulf states facing increased domestic financial demands and greater political scrutiny in Washington, the institute said uncertainty remained over whether Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE would fully implement their investment commitments and, if so, in what form.
The report said that the Iran conflict could significantly influence the timing, priorities and structure of the Gulf countries’ planned investments in the United States.
