RismadarVoice Reporters
September 17, 2026
Nigeria’s population is estimated at more than 237 million people, nearly two decades after the country conducted its last population and housing census.
The 2006 census recorded 140,431,790 people, while World Bank estimates placed Nigeria’s population at about 237.5 million in 2025.
At an estimated annual growth rate of about 2.1 per cent, the country could be adding roughly five million people a year at its current population level.
The difference underscores the scale of demographic change since Nigeria’s last nationwide enumeration and has renewed attention on conducting an updated census and strengthening the registration of births and deaths.
FERTILITY DECLINES, CHILD MORTALITY REMAINS HIGH
Nigeria’s 2024 Demographic and Health Survey showed that the total fertility rate declined from 5.3 children per woman in 2018 to 4.8 in 2024.
Modern contraceptive use among married women stood at 15 per cent, while 37 per cent of demand for family planning was reported as being satisfied.
Under-five mortality also declined from 132 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2018 to 110 per 1,000 in 2024.
The figures vary considerably across geographical and socioeconomic groups, highlighting significant differences in demographic and health conditions across the country.
BIRTH REGISTRATION REMAINS A CHALLENGE
Civil registration is another major part of Nigeria’s demographic challenge.
UNICEF reported in 2024 that 57 per cent of children under five in Nigeria had their births registered.
Birth registration provides legal recognition and can help connect children to healthcare, education, social protection and other public services.
The National Population Commission, alongside government and development partners, has been expanding electronic birth registration as part of efforts to improve coverage.
A comprehensive system for continuously recording births and deaths could eventually provide Nigeria with more regularly updated demographic information between national censuses.
NIGERIA’S YOUNG POPULATION PRESENTS ECONOMIC TEST
Nigeria’s large youthful population could become a major economic advantage if accompanied by improvements in education, healthcare, skills development and employment.
The World Bank said in February 2026 that deficiencies in health, education and workplace skills represented substantial losses in Nigeria’s potential future labour earnings.
The institution’s analysis also indicated that increasing effective schooling to 12 years could raise labour earnings considerably over the long term.
Rapid population growth without corresponding improvements in jobs and essential services, however, could intensify existing pressures on infrastructure and household welfare.
DIGITAL CENSUS BACK IN FOCUS
President Bola Tinubu has previously linked an accurate population count to effective government budgeting.
During the inauguration of the National Census Committee in April 2025, Tinubu said the government needed reliable information about the country’s population to allocate resources properly.
Attention has since remained on the prospect of conducting a digital population and housing census using technologies including geospatial mapping.
A future census would also require measures to protect personal information and ensure public confidence in the process.
Government agencies including the National Population Commission, National Bureau of Statistics and National Identity Management Commission are expected to play important roles in strengthening Nigeria’s population and identity-data systems.
ECONOMIC GROWTH MUST KEEP PACE WITH POPULATION
Nigeria’s demographic expansion has significant implications for living standards.
With the population growing at an estimated 2.1 per cent annually, overall economic growth must substantially exceed population growth for sustained improvements in output per person.
That helps explain why increases in headline Gross Domestic Product may not immediately produce equally great improvements in household living conditions.
As Nigeria pursues its ambition to build a much larger economy, an updated census, stronger civil registration, and greater investment in human capital will be central to understanding and responding to the needs of its rapidly expanding population.
