RismadarVoice Reporters
September 20, 2026
California voters will decide in November whether to impose a one-time 5 per cent wealth tax on billionaires, in a closely contested ballot measure that has triggered a major debate over healthcare funding, inequality and the possible economic consequences for America’s largest state economy.
The measure, known as Proposition 40, will appear on the November 3 ballot and would apply to California residents who were billionaires as of January 1, 2026. California’s official voter guide says the tax would generally cover assets such as businesses, securities, art, collectables, and intellectual property, while real estate and certain retirement assets would be excluded.
Under the proposal, 90 per cent of the proceeds would be directed to healthcare, while the remaining funds would support food assistance, education-related programmes and administration of the tax.
BILLIONS AT STAKE
Supporters argue that California’s concentration of extremely wealthy residents provides an opportunity to raise substantial additional funding for public services, particularly healthcare.
The state’s independent Legislative Analyst estimates that Proposition 40 could generate tens of billions of dollars over several years, although the eventual amount would depend partly on asset valuations and how affected taxpayers respond to the measure.
That official estimate is more cautious than some campaign projections suggesting the tax could generate about $100 billion.
The Legislative Analyst also warned of a possible longer-term downside, estimating that California could lose less than $1 billion annually in income-tax revenue from billionaires if some affected residents relocate or otherwise change their financial arrangements.
SUPPORTERS, OPPONENTS BATTLE OVER ECONOMIC IMPACT
Backers of Proposition 40 say the measure would require some of California’s wealthiest residents to contribute more towards healthcare and other essential services.
Opponents argue that the tax could encourage wealthy residents to leave California, potentially reducing future income-tax collections, investment and economic activity.
Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, opposes Proposition 40 and has instead supported addressing wealth taxation at the federal level.
The competing arguments have turned the proposal into one of California’s closely watched ballot battles, with major financial interests mobilising on both sides.
POLLS SHOW CLOSE CONTEST
An August UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll found 48 per cent of likely voters supporting Proposition 40 and 41 per cent opposing it, with the remainder undecided. The survey involved 4,207 registered California voters and had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
More recent polling has also indicated a competitive contest, but polling represents voter opinion at the time surveys are conducted and does not determine the November result.
California’s official election authorities describe the choice more simply: a Yes vote would establish the one-time 5 per cent billionaire wealth tax, while a No vote would leave it out of state law.
With California home to hundreds of billionaires and some of the world’s biggest technology companies, the November vote is expected to draw attention well beyond the state as the wider US debate over taxation of extreme wealth continues.
