Micah Jonah, March 7, 2026
A class action lawsuit has been filed against prediction market platform Kalshi for allegedly failing to pay about $54 million to users who bet that Ali Khamenei would leave office before March 1.
The lawsuit was filed on Thursday at the United States District Court for the Central District of California.
According to the complaint, Khamenei was killed on Saturday during joint strikes by the United States and Israel targeting Iran, an operation that reportedly left hundreds of people dead, including senior Iranian officials.
Plaintiffs allege that Kalshi failed to honour payouts to users who predicted the Iranian leader would leave office before the specified date. The lawsuit claims the platform invoked a “death carveout” provision after Khamenei’s death to avoid paying participants in what was known as the “Khamenei Market”.
The legal filing argues that the market conditions allowed for Khamenei’s departure from office through any cause, including death, and described the company’s alleged actions as deceptive.
In response, a spokesperson for Kalshi said the company’s rules were clear from the beginning, designed to prevent trading based on the outcome of a death.
The spokesperson also said the company refunded fees and net losses to users, adding that the move cost the firm millions of dollars in order to ensure no customer lost money in the market.
Prediction markets have grown in popularity in recent years, particularly after the 2024 United States presidential election, when such platforms gained attention for forecasting political outcomes. These platforms allow users to trade contracts that predict real world events, including political developments, sports results and economic indicators.
