RismadarVoice Reporters, May 28, 2026
The United Nations has warned that global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record highs over the next five years, with a strong possibility that a new hottest year on record could occur before 2031.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation, WMO, there is a 75 per cent chance that the average global temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels a key threshold identified in the Paris climate agreement.
The agency also said there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year within the period will surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded.
The warning comes as parts of western Europe experience extreme heat conditions, with Britain and France recording unusually high temperatures for May due to a persistent “heat dome.”
WMO climate experts attributed part of the expected warming trend to a possible El Niño event forecast for late 2026, which could make 2027 another record-breaking year.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that increases temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and influences global weather systems, often contributing to hotter global conditions.
The UN agency noted that annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are expected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average, the period used as the pre-industrial climate baseline.
Although scientists say temporary breaches of the 1.5°C threshold do not automatically mean the long-term Paris Agreement target has failed, they warned that such exceedances are becoming increasingly frequent.
The report further highlighted concerns about the Arctic, where temperatures during the next five northern hemisphere winters are projected to rise by about 2.8°C above average levels recorded between 1991 and 2020.
The WMO also projected wetter conditions in regions such as the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while drier conditions are expected in parts of the Amazon.
The report was compiled using forecasts from 13 international climate institutes and coordinated by the WMO together with Britain’s Met Office.
