RismadarVoice Reporters
May 29, 2026
Global oil prices are heading for their steepest monthly decline in six years, a development that is beginning to ease pressure on consumers and fuel markets after months of volatility linked to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, is on track to fall by more than 20% in May, marking its largest monthly drop since 2020. U.S. crude has also declined sharply, with a fall of about 19% set to be its biggest monthly drop since late 2021.
The price declines have already begun to filter through to retail fuel markets. In the United States, the average price of unleaded gasoline has dropped by about 17 cents per gallon from its recent peak of $4.56, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA).
Despite the recent easing, fuel prices remain significantly elevated, with the national average still around $4.39 per gallon—roughly 47% higher than levels recorded before the outbreak of the Iran-related conflict earlier in the year.
The decline in oil prices has been partly attributed to market expectations of a possible diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran. President Donald Trump has repeatedly signalled progress toward a potential agreement, including a possible ceasefire framework and reopening of key shipping routes.
Market analysts say investor sentiment has been strongly influenced by political messaging from the White House, which has suggested that negotiations with Iran are nearing completion. However, no formal agreement has been confirmed by either side.
Retail fuel relief is already being reflected in consumer behaviour. Major U.S. retailers such as Costco reported record gasoline sales volumes in recent weeks, with many members reportedly using its fuel stations for the first time amid elevated prices elsewhere.
However, analysts warn that the current downturn may be fragile. While prices have eased, underlying supply risks remain elevated due to continued uncertainty over maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy transit route.
Energy executives have cautioned that global inventories are tightening after months of disrupted shipping through the waterway. Some industry leaders have warned that if supply constraints persist, prices could reverse sharply in the coming weeks.
One senior energy executive projected that crude oil could spike significantly if transit conditions worsen, with potential knock-on effects for global fuel costs and broader inflation.
Chevron and ExxonMobil executives have also flagged concerns over declining inventories and the risks associated with continued instability in key shipping lanes, noting that even post-conflict recovery in global oil logistics could take months.
The Strait of Hormuz, which historically carries more than 20% of global energy shipments, has seen sharply reduced traffic in recent months due to security concerns and military tensions.
Analysts caution that even if diplomatic progress continues, restoring normal shipping flows and clearing potential maritime hazards such as mines could take considerable time, keeping markets on edge.
For now, the oil market remains caught between easing geopolitical expectations and persistent supply uncertainty, leaving prices vulnerable to renewed volatility in the weeks ahead.
