RismadarVoice Reporters
September 9, 2026
Global oil markets are facing increased uncertainty over the volume of crude passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as traders, energy companies and governments struggle to determine the actual level of shipping activity through the key energy route amid rising tensions between the United States and Iran.
Brent crude prices approached $100 per barrel following renewed attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi forces on Saudi energy facilities and warnings from Tehran of possible economic retaliation against Washington over the ongoing dispute surrounding the strategic waterway.
The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is one of the world’s most important oil transit routes, historically carrying about 20 million barrels of crude daily, representing roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption.
However, months of military confrontation have disrupted normal monitoring systems, making it difficult to accurately assess current oil flows through the passage.
Analysts are now relying on satellite images, port records, vessel-tracking information, tanker data and artificial intelligence tools to estimate the amount of oil moving through the strait.
The assessment has become more challenging due to an increase in “dark crossings”, where vessels disable tracking systems to avoid detection. Restrictions on some commercial satellite imagery have also contributed to uncertainty over shipping activity.
Different estimates from officials and shipping analysts have added to market confusion. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said more than 17 million barrels passed through the strait on August 31 under U.S. Navy supervision, while shipping intelligence firm Kpler estimated the volume was closer to 6 million barrels on the same day.
Kpler estimated average crude flows through Hormuz at about 4.3 million barrels per day in August, increasing to nearly 5 million barrels per day during the first days of September.
The United States has increased efforts to secure shipping routes, including operations aimed at clearing maritime threats and establishing protected corridors for vessels operating near the Gulf.
Analysts say uncertainty itself has become a major factor influencing oil prices, creating a risk premium that could remain in global markets for months.
The situation is expected to become clearer only if tensions between Washington and Tehran ease. However, both sides remain locked in a confrontation involving economic pressure, sanctions and control over vital energy routes.
Iran has continued to maintain the ability to disrupt maritime traffic, while the United States seeks to increase oil flows and limit Tehran’s export capacity.
As uncertainty over shipping activity continues, market participants remain focused on developments around the Strait of Hormuz and their potential impact on global energy supplies.
