RismadarVoice Reporters
September 18, 2026
Global investment bank JPMorgan has acknowledged that it is struggling to forecast the direction of oil prices as the ongoing US-Iran war continues to disrupt energy markets and create uncertainty over global supplies.
In a rare note to investors, the bank’s commodities research team said it no longer had a clear baseline scenario for how the conflict could end, stating that it was difficult to model the eventual outcome.
“For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don’t have a baseline view. We simply don’t know how to model the endgame,” the analysts said.
JPMorgan said it had initially expected economic pressures from the conflict to encourage the United States and Iran to reach an agreement that would allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to resume.
The bank said its earlier assumptions were based on several potential economic thresholds, including oil prices rising above $100 per barrel, US inflation reaching four per cent, petrol prices exceeding $5 per gallon and the yield on 10-year US government bonds climbing to five per cent.
According to the analysts, several of those thresholds have now been breached or approached, while there is still no clear strategy for ending the conflict.
“Six months later, many of those lines have been crossed, yet the exit strategy is less clear, not more,” the analysts said.
Oil prices have risen above $100 per barrel in recent weeks as traders assess the possibility of prolonged disruption to energy supplies and international shipping.
JPMorgan estimated that the fundamental or “fair value” of oil in September would be around $90 per barrel, suggesting that prices above that level reflect a growing risk premium linked to the conflict.
The bank also highlighted potential risks involving other strategic shipping routes in the Middle East, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait, where Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have been cited as an additional threat to international trade.
An oil and gas industry source described JPMorgan’s decision to issue the warning as unusual for such a major financial institution, but said it reflected the uncertainty surrounding the conflict.
The uncertainty has wider economic implications because crude oil is a major input in transportation, manufacturing and other sectors. Sustained increases in energy prices can therefore contribute to higher consumer prices globally.
US President Donald Trump has said he does not expect the conflict to end before the November midterm elections, although he has predicted that oil prices would fall sharply after the election.
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has continued to face pressure from persistent inflation, with policymakers signalling that interest-rate decisions will depend heavily on the trajectory of prices.
JPMorgan said the absence of clear signs of de-escalation was making it increasingly difficult to maintain its earlier assumption that disruptions to global oil supplies would be temporary.
