RismadarVoice Reporters, August 31, 2026
Italy’s population is expected to decline by almost four million people by 2050, creating increasing pressure on the country’s economy, labour market and welfare system, according to new projections from the national statistics agency ISTAT.
ISTAT’s demographic forecast showed that Italy’s resident population is projected to fall from 58.9 million at the beginning of 2025 to about 55 million by 2050. The decline is expected to continue, with the population estimated to reach 45.8 million by 2080.
The statistics agency warned that the country’s ageing population and declining birth rate would create significant challenges for public finances and social welfare programmes.
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni had identified increasing the birth rate as a major priority when she assumed office in 2022, but government efforts have so far produced limited results.
Births in Italy have been falling steadily since 2008, reaching about 355,000 last year, the lowest figure recorded since the country’s unification in 1861. At the same time, deaths have increased as the population continues to age.
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ISTAT projected that annual births would remain relatively stable until 2030 before declining further to around 335,000 by 2050.
The agency also forecast that annual deaths would rise from approximately 652,000 last year to a peak of 869,000 in 2058 as the large post-war generation reaches older age.
By 2050, people aged 65 and above are expected to account for 34.5 per cent of Italy’s population, compared with 24.7 per cent in 2025. Meanwhile, the working-age population, defined as those between 15 and 64 years old, is projected to decline from 63.4 per cent to 55.3 per cent
ISTAT said the reduction in available workers combined with a growing number of pensioners would place additional strain on Italy’s economic structure and welfare system.
The demographic decline is expected to affect regions differently, with southern Italy facing the largest population losses. The region’s population is projected to fall from 19.7 million in 2025 to 16.7 million by 2050, while central and northern regions are expected to experience smaller declines.
