By Micah Jonah
March 23, 2026
Global investment bank – Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 average forecast for Brent crude oil from $77 to $85 per barrel, citing extended supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and increased strategic stockpiling by oil-consuming nations. The bank also lifted its forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $79 per barrel from $72.
Goldman expects Brent prices to average $110 per barrel in March and April, up from a previous estimate of $98, as traders factor in a growing risk premium linked to uncertainty over the duration of supply disruptions. The bank warned that if uncertainty peaks and precautionary demand destruction is triggered, Brent could spike to $135 per barrel under a scenario of six months of constrained flows and persistent production losses of 2 million barrels per day.
The investment bank highlighted two key upside risk factors. First, a prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent above its 2008 peak. Second, sustained supply losses of 2 million barrels per day in the Middle East could send prices sharply higher. Conversely, Goldman said a potential de-escalation of US military action in the region could ease the risk premium, while any US oil-export restrictions might widen the Brent–WTI price gap further.
Despite these fluctuations, the bank forecasts Brent and WTI to stabilise around $80 and $75, respectively, through 2027, as adjustments in supply and demand are expected to offset the tightening effect of strategic reserve rebuilding by key countries.
Brent crude futures recently traded at $112.11 per barrel, while U.S. WTI was at $98.17 per barrel, reflecting ongoing market volatility.
Geopolitical tensions continue to weigh heavily on oil markets. Iran has warned it would target the energy and water infrastructure of its Gulf neighbours if President Donald Trump follows through on a previous threat to strike Iran’s electricity grid within 48 hours.
Goldman’s revision comes amid a backdrop of rising global inflation and energy costs, further complicated by supply chain uncertainties stemming from geopolitical crises. Analysts note that continued market vigilance will be critical as nations adjust their reserves and oil producers navigate operational risks in a volatile Middle East.
