By Micah Jonah
January 29, 2026
China is expected to increase imports of Brazilian soybeans in the first half of 2026, driven by record harvests, cheaper prices in South America, even as shipments from the United States gradually return, market sources and analysts say.
Private soybean processors in China have already begun locking in contracts for Brazilian shipments from February as harvesting accelerates, boosting supply and pushing prices lower. This is expected to reduce demand for US soybeans when North American exports resume later in the year.
Although China has purchased about 12 million metric tons of US soybeans since late October following improved relations between Beijing and Washington, these purchases were mainly carried out by state owned companies such as Sinograin and COFCO. Higher US prices and a 13 percent tariff make American soybeans less attractive to private crushers compared with Brazilian beans, which face a much lower import duty of about 3 percent.
Analysts say current US purchases are largely political, aimed at maintaining a positive atmosphere ahead of an expected meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in April. Further buying will likely depend on whether new tariff reductions or political assurances are reached.
Crush margins for Brazilian soybeans shipped between March and June remain favourable, encouraging traders to secure more South American cargoes. Brazil’s soybeans are significantly cheaper during this period and traders expect higher export volumes to China compared with last year.
Brazil is projected to produce a record 182.2 million tons of soybeans in the 2025 to 2026 season, according to agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult. Rabobank estimates that Brazil could export about 85 million tons of soybeans to China between September 2025 and August 2026, an increase of six million tons from the previous year.
China’s pig population remains high, supporting strong demand for soymeal in the first half of 2026. This continued livestock demand is expected to keep soybean imports elevated, even though overall imports for the 2025 to 2026 season are forecast to fall to about 95.8 million tons from over 109 million tons the previous year.
Traders say further US soybean purchases are unlikely unless director director by the Chinese government, as Brazilian supplies remain cheaper and more readily available throughout the peak South American export season.
