By: Micah Jonah
January 8, 2026
Rapid growth in artificial intelligence, defense and robotics is set to lift global copper demand by 50 percent by 2040, but supply is expected to fall far short unless more mines are developed and recycling expands, according to a new report by S&P Global.
The consultancy said annual copper demand is projected to rise to about 42 million metric tons by 2040, up sharply from roughly 28 million metric tons in 2025. Without significant new sources of supply, more than 10 million metric tons of demand each year could go unmet, representing nearly a quarter of total projected consumption.
Copper has long been a cornerstone of the global economy, widely used in construction, transportation, technology and electronics due to its high electrical conductivity, corrosion resistance and ease of shaping. While the electric vehicle industry has driven demand over the past decade, S&P said the next major wave will come from AI driven data centers, defense systems and robotics, alongside steady consumer demand for appliances such as air conditioners.
“The underlying demand factor here is electrification of the world, and copper is the metal of electrification,” said Dan Yergin, vice Chairman of S&P Global and one of the report’s authors.
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a particularly strong driver. More than 100 new data center projects were announced last year alone, with investments valued at nearly 61 billion dollars, underscoring the scale of copper intensive infrastructure required to support AI growth.
Defense spending is also expected to add pressure on supplies. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine, and increased military budgets in countries such as Japan, Germany are likely to fuel demand. “Demand for copper really is inelastic in the defense sector,” said Carlos Pascual, an S&P Vice President and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine.
Chile and Peru remain the world’s largest copper producers, while China dominates global smelting capacity. The United States imports about half of its copper needs each year and has imposed tariffs on certain copper products. The report does not include potential supply from deep sea mining.
S&P noted that its latest analysis differs from a similar report released in 2022 that focused on copper demand under global net zero climate targets. The new forecast assumes copper demand will continue to rise, regardless of government climate policies.
“The politics of the energy transition have changed pretty dramatically,” Yergin said, adding that copper demand is now being driven as much by technology and security needs as by climate goals.
