RismadarVoice Reporters, June 15, 2026
Petroleum industry stakeholders have projected that the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, could fall to around N900 per litre if ongoing peace efforts between the United States and Iran succeed and global crude oil prices continue their downward trend.
The optimism follows a sustained decline in international crude oil prices amid expectations that tensions in the Middle East may ease. Industry players believe that a successful agreement between Washington and Tehran, coupled with the reopening of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, could further stabilise the global energy market and reduce fuel costs.
Crude oil prices, which climbed above $120 per barrel during the height of the US-Iran conflict, have dropped significantly in recent weeks, trading at about $87 per barrel as of Sunday. The earlier surge in prices had pushed fuel costs higher across many countries, including Nigeria.
Locally, petrol prices rose sharply from approximately N830 per litre to as much as N1,300 per litre during the period of heightened geopolitical tensions. Diesel and aviation fuel also recorded substantial increases, placing additional pressure on businesses and consumers.
With crude oil now trending downward, market analysts and fuel marketers anticipate that local fuel prices may soon reflect the changing global market conditions.
Industry sources indicated that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery could consider adjusting its petrol pricing structure if lower crude prices are sustained. The refinery had previously reduced its ex-depot petrol price from N1,275 to N1,250 per litre and cut diesel prices following a decline in global oil prices.
A source familiar with refinery operations noted that although lower crude prices ordinarily support cheaper fuel, existing inventories purchased at higher prices may delay immediate reductions. However, the source acknowledged that petrol selling for around N900 per litre remains a realistic possibility if crude prices continue to decline.
The Petroleum Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) also expressed confidence that fuel prices could fall below N1,000 per litre if the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal operations and oil markets remain stable.
PETROAN spokesperson Joseph Obele said fuel prices before the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East were significantly lower and argued that a return to those levels is possible if peace is sustained.
According to him, the end of the conflict would remove a major source of uncertainty from the global oil market, creating conditions for further reductions in petrol prices across Nigeria.
The optimism was further boosted by comments from United States President Donald Trump, who announced that a peace agreement with Iran was expected to be signed and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened to international shipping.
Trump described the proposed arrangement as a stronger alternative to previous agreements with Iran, insisting that it would prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons while fostering improved relations between both nations.
Meanwhile, market checks revealed that some fuel marketers have already begun adjusting their ex-depot petrol prices downward, signalling increased competition within the sector.
According to industry observers, if the peace agreement is finalised and crude oil prices continue to ease, consumers could witness another round of petrol price reductions in the coming weeks, potentially bringing fuel costs closer to pre-conflict levels.
